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DTN Early Word Grains 05/25 05:53

DTN Early Word Grains 05/25 05:53 No New Headlines

July corn was 1 cent higher, July soybeans were 5 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 7 cents higher.

By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex: July corn was 1 cent higher, July soybeans were 5 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 7 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap: This week has seen markets in all sectors post some wild moves as the Headline Maker-in-Chief kept busy. However, early Friday morning shows no abrupt changes in mood or temperament, meaning no market-moving headlines. Grain and oilseeds were mostly higher, led by Kansas City HRW wheat. Energies were mostly lower while metals were mostly higher. DJIA futures hint at the big board erasing what was left of Thursday's loss while the U.S. dollar index was quietly higher.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 75.05 points (0.3%) lower at 24,811.76, the NASDAQ Composite lost 1.53 points to 7,424.43, and the S&P 500 fell 5.53 points (0.2%) to 2,727.76 Thursday. DJIA futures were 60 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 13.78 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 172.37 points (0.6%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 13.35 points (0.4%). European markets were trading mostly higher with London's FTSE 100 up 20.76 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX gaining 143.20 points (1.1%), and France's CAC 40 adding 42.72 points (0.8%). The euro was unchanged at 1.1722 as the U.S. dollar index added 0.05 to 93.83. The 10-year Treasury yield was 2.981% with June 30-year T-Bonds 11/32 higher at 143'04. June gold gained $0.10 to $1,304.50 while crude oil dropped $1.38 to $69.33. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.

DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 05/25 06:15

DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 05/25 06:15 Limited Trade Expected Friday

Trader interest is expected to remain sluggish through the entire Friday session with traders still in the market focusing more on end of the week and pre-holiday positioning than anything else at this point.

By Rick Kment DTN Analyst



Cattle: Steady to $2 Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $147.69 -0.41* Hogs: Mixed Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 79.30 -0.70**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Although the desire from both packers and feedlot managers would be to finish cash cattle trade early and call it good ahead of the long holiday weekend, it appears that there is still a lot of work to do before any significant business gets done. The few trades reported through the North so far this week have been incredibly inconsistent when it comes to price ranges and are unable to establish a market trend at this point. Packer interest is expected to improve through the morning, but it could be late day before trade develops. Futures trade is expected to be mixed following the late-day market pullback on Thursday. Overall trade volume is likely to be extremely light with many traders already stepping away from the complex in front of the long holiday weekend.

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/25 12:02

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/25 12:02

Limited Activity Develops Ahead of Long Weekend

Livestock futures are trading within a narrowly mixed price range as very limited activity is seen in the complex. Many traders have already checked out for the week as markets will not reopen next week until Tuesday.

By Rick Kment DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Market activity has been increasingly sluggish Friday with very limited trade activity seen in the complex. The May 1 cattle on feed report posted total cattle on feed at 105% and total placement in the month of April at 92% compared to the previous year. Corn prices are higher in light trade. July corn futures are 1 cent higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 81 points lower while Nasdaq is up 15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have eroded at midday following the release of the cattle on feed report. Total cattle on feed is listed at 105% of previous year levels at the end of April. Marketing levels are seen at 106%. There continues to be some market pressure developing in the complex, although the lack of activity in the market is keeping any price shifts narrow. Trade is expected to remain generally undeveloped as traders have already been looking into next week following the holiday weekend. Cash cattle trade still remains undeveloped although bids are steadily improving through the morning. Live bids are seen at $108 to $110 per cwt with the top end of the range seen in the South. Dressed bids are seen at $175 per cwt. These bids are still below asking prices of $115 and higher live basis and $177 to $180 dressed. Trade could be delayed until late in the day, although the desire to finish early Friday could spark some early afternoon activity. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.04 lower (select) and down $1.59 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 76 total loads reported (38 loads of choice cuts, 18 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Despite the light trade activity seen across the complex Friday the early release of the cattle on feed report posted overall cattle placements set at 92% of 2017 levels. This is not expected to draw additional support back into the complex over the near future. Trade remains mixed with price 45 cents lower to 30 cents higher through the end of the week.

LEAN HOGS:

Mixed trade continues to be seen across the complex Friday with front month June futures still holding moderate losses in limited trade activity. The rest of the complex is steady to 50 cents higher, although overall limited trade activity through the morning has kept the market direction very limited. Additional support may continue to move into the market through the last couple hours of trade. But overall buyer support may be sluggish due to the long holiday weekend. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 190 loads selling with carcass values adding $0.78 per cwt. Lean hog index for 5/22 is at $69.03 up 0.34 with a projected two-day index of $69.29, up 0.26

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(SK)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/25 12:47

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/25 12:47

All Grains Higher at Midday

Wheat leads at midday with soybeans and corn firmer heading towards the long weekend.

By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow down 10 points. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 45 points higher. Energies are weaker with crude down 2.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 1.00.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade following the lead of the firmer soy and wheat trade this morning, but we remain below the fresh highs scored yesterday with little fresh buying enthusiasm so far. Warm weather should dominate the week, with rain coverage looking better for the west, and better for the second week out with some model disagreement. The second crop areas of Brazil are trending back drier in the near term with some storm damage. Ethanol blender margins are narrowing with the energy complex pulling back well of the recent highs, while corn remains elevated along with ethanol futures holding over $1.52. On the July chart we moved back above the 20-day at $4.02 with the next level of support is 50-day at 3.95 which we tested to start the week, with resistance at the fresh high at $4.12 1/4.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade trying to regain the momentum lost yesterday. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. Trucker strikes are disrupting logistics in South America as harvest winds down, and China was booking late summer soy cargos off the West Coast with sales of 312,000 metric tons of new crop sold today, along with 165,000 of option origin. Crush margins have narrowed but remain positive, with meal starting to find buyers again with trade $10 off the lows but struggling to hold gains. Basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain quiet into the weekend. On the July chart, trade is just above the 50-day at $10.38, with the upper Bollinger Band at 10.64 the next level of resistance.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 6 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade trying to shake off the turn lower yesterday, with profit taking likely going into the long weekend late in the session. Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still behind normal, but catching up with another week of heat likely to add stress to the heading crop with areas south of I-70 starting to change. Some better rain potential was showing for Kansas in the overnight forecast but it is getting late to matter, especially for the second week. Spring wheat should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence, with Canada remaining on the dry side. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with growing concerns about drier winter wheat, and slow spring wheat seeding. Black Sea values are at $206 a ton. India is raising import tariffs as well. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 20-day at 5.37, with the upper Bollinger Band at 5.65.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

(BAS)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/25 13:59

DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/25 13:59 HRW Wheat Charges Higher Into Hot Holiday Weekend

July K.C. wheat closed up 15 cents, nearly reaching it highest prices in 10 months with hot temperatures in store for the southwestern Plains through Memorial Day weekend. Friday's trading was light, but also saw modest gains posted for corn and soybeans.

DTN Chart Technical Points 05/25 16:30

DTN Chart Technical Points 05/25 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 5/25/18 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL 543.00 531.44 515.17 514.47 497.69 70.64 65.47 59.86 86 80 75 62 CBTWT SEP 559.75 548.25 531.67 530.89 514.57 71.60 66.27 60.43 87 82 77 63 KC WT JUL 564.00 551.31 534.81 536.44 522.02 68.46 63.57 58.61 86 79 67 51 KC WT SEP 582.50 569.88 553.44 554.88 540.59 68.58 63.73 58.80 86 80 67 52 MN WT JUL 644.25 638.50 626.33 620.35 614.58 67.64 63.16 56.65 74 75 81 76 MN WT SEP 648.75 643.50 631.92 626.46 620.61 68.15 63.45 57.09 76 77 83 76 CORN JUL 406.00 405.88 402.83 402.58 396.89 58.12 57.29 56.72 65 73 74 71 CORN SEP 415.00 414.69 411.39 410.85 404.41 59.41 58.55 57.80 68 75 78 75 CORN DEC 425.00 424.31 420.86 419.69 413.17 61.54 60.41 59.24 71 78 81 78 OATS JUL 248.75 248.63 244.92 241.39 238.47 61.00 58.70 52.23 58 74 86 90 OATS SEP 252.00 251.75 249.28 245.85 243.63 61.09 58.88 52.34 54 69 86 92 BEANS JUL1041.501036.751020.471022.611037.23 60.09 55.05 51.70 82 87 55 34 BEANS AUG1046.001040.811024.311026.171039.60 60.81 55.69 52.16 83 88 58 35 BEANS SEP1049.001043.061026.281027.131035.88 63.14 57.83 53.92 86 89 66 40 S MEAL JUL 380.30 378.95 378.36 383.59 383.96 48.05 48.08 50.96 43 41 14 12 S MEAL AUG 380.80 379.10 377.58 381.81 382.22 50.90 50.02 52.13 54 55 20 14 B OIL JUL 31.34 31.57 31.26 31.10 31.41 52.65 51.18 47.45 63 76 81 70 B OIL AUG 31.45 31.68 31.37 31.21 31.53 52.52 51.07 47.43 63 76 81 69 CATTLE JUN 104.65 104.85 103.84 104.94 104.39 49.83 48.85 46.46 69 78 51 38 CATTLE AUG 102.30 101.88 100.55 102.34 103.15 51.70 48.56 45.43 82 83 41 25 FEEDER AUG 144.93 143.08 140.48 142.22 142.95 61.34 55.71 50.62 88 90 49 30 FEEDER SEP 144.45 142.91 140.61 142.52 143.73 59.06 53.77 49.37 88 89 45 27 HOGS JUN 74.20 74.19 74.73 74.93 75.08 45.61 46.36 46.27 54 41 36 42 HOGS JUL 77.55 76.42 77.16 77.03 77.24 52.99 51.08 48.85 53 36 38 40 COTTON JUL 89.21 87.75 86.57 85.85 84.02 70.70 66.43 61.34 56 59 75 69 COTTON OCT 87.52 86.06 84.51 83.20 81.12 79.93 74.70 68.16 87 85 93 90 RICE JUL 11.56 11.84 12.16 12.46 12.70 16.46 22.03 32.41 19 20 11 9 RICE SEP 11.44 11.57 11.75 11.93 12.01 26.64 30.25 38.60 26 28 17 15

DTN Cattle Close/Trends 05/25 15:40





USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 05/25/18

VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG

KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 253 WEEK T0 DATE: 1,702 STEERS 70 110.00-110.00 110.00-110.00 110.00 HEIFERS No reportable trade

NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 13,558 WEEK TO DATE: 15,851 STEERS 1,107 176.00-180.00 176.00-180.00 176.56 HEIFERS 399 177.00-180.00 177.00-180.00 178.75

TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,416 WEEK TO DATE: 2,416 STEERS 983 110.00-110.00 110.00-110.00 110.00 HEIFERS 973 108.00-110.00 108.00-110.00 108.83

IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 4,378 WEEK TO DATE: 8,220 STEERS 877 170.00-180.00 170.00-180.00 174.85 HEIFERS 296 174.00-177.00 174.00-177.00 175.43

COMMENTS: The country was fairly quiet this afternoon with only a light Scattered trade reported. The best test was in Nebraska, but that is not Saying much. The dressed average in NE was 176.56 down from last week's Weighted average of 183.06. It looks like 110.00 was the live price generally $5 lower than last week's weighted average basis the South. 5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $113.64(1453)Light Test HIDE&OFFAL: $9.58 +0.09 CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD LIVE BASED 172.06 150.45 12,174 BOX BASED 215.43 192.62 47,276 AVE INDEX 193.75 -0.95 171.53 -0.32 59,450 BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) 227.43 -1.57 204.62 -0.31 46.92 LDS CH CUTS / 26.82 LDS SEL CUTS / 18.40 LDS TRIM / 12.46 LDS GROUND BOXED BEEF TREND: Wk/Lr on lt-mod dem & mod offers COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 05/18 $221.70 -1.02 CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $175.86 +0.33 NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 14.18 lds / Hr on mod dem & lt offers 90% TRIM: 00 lds: Wtd Avg $No Test/ Lower FI KILL(WTD) FRI 119(598) WK AGO 119(593) YR AGO 117(586) MIX: THU SH97/CB24 SAT 49(647) WK AGO 67(660) YR AGO 37(623) WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS. FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H Week Ending: 05/12/18 9,571 4,577 Week Ending: 05/05/18 9,781 3,612 Change from prev week: -210 +965

DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/25 16:28

DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/25 16:28 Feeder Cattle Futures Rally Late Friday

Buyer support moved back into the cattle complex late Friday. The support developed following the early release of the cattle on feed report, which posted a 92% cattle placement compared to year ago levels. Light buyer interest was seen in most other livestock futures despite the limited trade activity.

By Rick Kment DTN Analyst



GENERAL COMMENTS

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Jun LC, up $2.25; Aug LC, up $4.08; Aug FC, up $7.30; Sep FC, up $6.65; Jun LH, off $0.50; Jul LH, up $0.30. Cash cattle trickled into some parts of the market through early afternoon Friday. Trade is seen in the North at $177 dressed basis and $110 live. Current prices are generally $6 per cwt below week ago levels. Bids are still seen at this time in the South at $110 per cwt, but no significant trade has yet developed. It is likely that some activity may be seen late afternoon or Friday evening, but trade volume may remain extremely light. The combination of reduced schedules next week, due to the Memorial Day holiday and previous sales in May sold for delayed delivery, may keep packers from aggressively sourcing cattle. This is still well below asking prices of $115 and higher in the South, and $182 to $185 in the North. At this point it appears that trade will be delayed until well into Friday. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.35 higher compared with the Prior Day settlement ($58.00 to $66.00) weighted average $65.07. The corn futures are higher in light activity. July futures were 1 3/4 cents higher Friday. The Dow Jones Index is 58 points lower with the Nasdaq up 9 points.

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