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DTN Feeder Pig Index

DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/17 05:59

DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/17 05:59 Hog Futures Geared For Firm Opening

Lean hog contracts should open moderately higher thanks to follow-through buying and stronger fundamentals. Look for the cattle complex to begin with mixed price action linked to a combination of residual selling and short-covering.

By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst



Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $133.43 + .34* Hogs: Steady-$1 HR Futures: 50-100 HR Lean Equiv $ 80.37 + .81**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cash cattle market should be a typical yawner for a Tuesday with bids and asking prices poorly defined. We expect cattle to eventually be priced higher given recent momentum. Yet little may be said by either side until Thursday or Friday. CME officials reported Monday afternoon that 34 loads were retendered against spot October live cattle (16 for $1; 18 for $2), all at West Point. The 18 loads discounted for $2 were all reclaimed. Live and feeder futures are expected to open on a mixed basis thanks to spillover selling and short-covering.

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/17 11:06

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/17 11:06

Grains Mixed at Midday

Trade is mostly lower across the board at midday.

By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is higher this morning with the Dow up 35 points. The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 35 higher. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold up $18.00.

CORN

Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet trade at midday with harvest pressure and weaker soybean trade weighing on the market, with some light two-sided action. Ethanol margins are stable with the seasonal usage expected to work lower but with blender margins improving with the recent firmer action in the energy complex. The condition report had good to excellent 1 percentage point higher to 65% good to excellent. The weekly crop progress report had maturity at 90%, 4 percentage points behind average with harvest at 28%, 19 percentage points behind average with open weather this week likely allowing for much better progress. Basis should see harvest pressure, while carry remains at wide levels. On the December chart support is at the 20-day at $3.50 which we are testing at midday with the contract low at $3.42 below that, with resistance the 50-day at $3.57.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with pressure from expanding harvest and profit taking after the recent rally. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. NOPA crush came in at 136.42 million bushels, with oil stocks just below expectations at 1.302 billion pounds. South American weather forecasts remains mixed with drier weather expected for Argentina to allow planting to progress while northern Brazil remains excessively dry for the early part of the growing season with the second week pattern looking to invert that which would allow for better progress. Crop conditions had good to excellent 1 percentage point higher at 62% good to excellent. The weekly crop progress had 94% dropping leaves, 1 percentage point ahead of average, and 49% harvested, 11 percentage pointS behind average, and export inspections were strong at 1.77 million metric tons. Trade will be watching to see if activity continues to show up on the daily export reporting system with the rise in prices. On the November chart, trade is above all the major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 first support, with resistance the recent high at $10.03.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade continuing to mark time near the lower end of the fall range, with pressure spilling over from the row crops, helping to blunt some early buying support. The dollar is solidly firmer this morning as it heads towards the recent highs. U.S. exports have been slowed lately as Black Sea origin continue to dominate. Australia will see more focus coming forward as well as the growing season progresses with some flood damage concerns in South America. The weekly crop progress showed 60% planted, 11 percentage points behind normal, and 37% emerged, 6 percentage points behind. On the December Kansas City support is the 10-day at $4.32 with resistance at the 20-day at $4.40.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/17 12:01

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/17 12:01

Limited Buying Interest Adds Pressure to Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures have eroded through the morning with traders quickly backing away from strong early gains, now posting 80 cent losses in spot month contracts. Nearby gains are holding in cattle futures. This is creating some stability through the market Tuesday.

By Rick Kment DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures remain mixed at midday as firm gains have steadily developed through the live cattle complex. This has limited trade volume through the morning. Early support in lean hog trade has pulled buyers back from the market as nearby futures are now holding moderate to firm losses. Corn prices are steady to lower in light trade. December corn futures are steady. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 17 points higher while Nasdaq is down 3 point.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong gains have developed in October live cattle futures with traders focusing on firm commercial interest stepping back into the nearby contracts. All nearby futures have broken away from the early mixed trade seen across the complex with prices able to draw additional momentum Tuesday on the expectation that additional fundamental support will continue to develop over the next couple of weeks. Cash cattle markets are undeveloped early Tuesday with bids and asking prices generally hard to pin down at this point. It is expected that asking prices will start out $113 to $114 live basis and around $178 per cwt. It will likely be Thursday or Friday before active trade develops in most areas. Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.75 higher (select) and up $0.30 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 68 total loads reported (30 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 13 loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are trading in a directionless market range with very little activity seen across the complex. The overall lack of movement in the complex has created very little incentive for traders to move in either direction. Prices are hovering from 15 cents per cwt lower to 12 cents cwt higher as traders look for direction from both the live cattle market as well as outside markets Tuesday morning.

LEAN HOGS:

Moderate pressure has quickly developed across the lean hog futures trade with traders focusing on nearby contracts 30 to 80 cents per cwt lower. This is a significant shift from the strong morning rally seen in the first hour of trade. The focus across the market continues to draw buyers back into the complex, which may help to stabilize prices in deferred contracts. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price higher $0.54 at $58.91 per cwt with the range from $53.00 to $61.50 on 5,419 head reported sold. Cash prices higher on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added $1.36 at $61.02 per cwt with the range from $58.00 to $61.02 on 2,253 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 204 loads selling with prices falling $0.70 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/13 is at $60.24 up $0.73 with a projected two-day index of $61.00, up 0.76.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(BE)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/17 15:30

DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/17 15:30 Cattle Futures Tumble in Late Day Trade

The inability to sustain support in cattle futures through the last hour of trade caused sharp triple-digit losses to develop in live cattle and feeder cattle markets. This defensive tone in the complex may continue to create additional market pressure across the rest of the complex later in the week.

By Rick Kment DTN Analyst



GENERAL COMMENTS

Cash cattle markets remain generally quiet late Tuesday afternoon with a few token bids developing across cattle country. Bids are seen at $109 live basis in both the North and South, while dressed bids are reported at $173 per cwt in Nebraska. At this point, asking prices appear to be pegged at $113 and higher live basis, and $178 to $180 dressed. Very little feeder interest is being shown these bids even with the pullback of futures. Most likely, cattle trade will be delayed until sometime late Thursday or Friday. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $2.07 higher compared with the Prior Day settlement ($53.00-$62.50) weighted average $60.44. The corn futures moved lower in light activity. December futures were 1/4 cent lower Tuesday. The Dow Jones Index is 40 points higher with the Nasdaq down 2 points.

DTN Cattle Close/Trends 10/17 15:40





USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 10/17/17

VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK T0 DATE: 0 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 496 STEERS No reportable trade HEIFERS No reportable trade

COMMENTS: Another quiet day with cattle country at a complete standstill.

5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $110.00(1280)Light Test / HIDE&OFFAL: $10.15 -0.11 CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD LIVE BASED 165.30 154.81 88,953 BOX BASED 185.66 177.85 48,899 AVE INDEX 175.48 -0.49 166.33 -0.27 137,852 BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) 197.66 -1.15 189.85 -0.72 61.61 LDS CH CUTS / 26.12 LDS SEL CUTS / 15.60 LDS TRIM / 16.15 LDS GROUND BOXED BEEF TREND: Weak to lower on light to moderate demand & offerings COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 10/13 $195.52 +1.12 CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $170.37 -1.04 NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 49.48 lds / Modly/shrply hr on gd dem & hvy offers 90% TRIM: 17 lds: Wtd Avg $214.00 / Mostly weak to lower *ABCDE AFTER QUOTE REPRESENTS DAYS SINCE LAST REPORTED MARKET TEST*. FI KILL(WTD) TUE 117(227) WK AGO 118(233) YR AGO 115(229) MIX: MON SH89/CB21 WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS. FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H Week Ending: 09/30/17 2,220 7,830 Week Ending: 09/23/17 3,165 6,887 Change from prev week: -945 +943

DTN Chart Technical Points 10/17 16:30

DTN Chart Technical Points 10/17 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/17/17 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 434.75 435.31 436.67 443.71 441.42 40.95 41.85 42.57 56 45 19 18 CBTWT MAR 453.75 454.06 455.78 462.75 461.99 40.22 40.91 41.82 55 43 17 17 KC WT DEC 433.25 432.38 432.31 439.94 439.59 43.92 43.00 42.42 67 55 22 17 KC WT MAR 451.25 450.50 450.36 457.83 457.52 44.08 43.18 42.58 68 56 22 18 MN WT DEC 611.00 611.69 616.19 623.75 639.09 38.24 38.44 41.48 18 21 15 23 MN WT MAR 625.25 625.69 630.00 636.99 649.20 39.24 39.44 42.35 20 22 15 23 CORN DEC 350.00 350.56 349.61 350.94 353.99 47.52 45.51 43.63 74 68 43 34 CORN MAR 363.75 364.31 363.11 364.07 366.70 49.10 46.78 44.41 74 68 47 38 CORN MAY 372.00 372.94 371.83 372.76 374.63 48.08 46.59 44.76 74 69 47 40 OATS DEC 264.75 263.19 255.72 252.74 247.31 67.04 63.53 56.18 75 82 86 85 OATS MAR 266.50 265.00 258.31 256.28 252.03 67.39 63.17 55.84 79 83 84 77 BEANS NOV 984.75 992.00 978.50 971.64 959.53 58.13 57.17 54.20 74 79 73 66 BEANS JAN 995.251002.38 989.00 982.15 969.39 58.37 57.42 54.46 75 80 74 67 BEANS MAR1005.001011.75 998.36 991.47 978.36 59.00 58.00 55.01 75 80 74 67 S MEAL DEC 321.60 325.25 320.41 317.04 308.91 56.96 57.25 54.63 68 75 77 80 S MEAL JAN 323.90 327.40 322.54 319.16 310.58 57.45 57.73 55.03 69 75 78 81 B OIL DEC 33.59 33.54 33.29 33.26 34.14 53.53 48.83 48.54 74 73 40 32 B OIL JAN 33.74 33.70 33.46 33.43 34.30 52.97 48.55 48.45 74 73 40 32 CATTLE OCT 111.18 112.02 112.02 110.55 108.42 52.21 53.93 51.88 23 47 75 85 CATTLE DEC 115.97 116.80 117.16 116.01 113.01 49.47 53.11 53.20 12 31 71 82 FEEDER OCT 152.15 153.44 153.70 153.02 148.90 45.34 50.99 53.37 35 45 53 61 FEEDER NOV 152.43 154.13 154.94 154.47 149.61 41.82 48.62 52.94 28 36 54 69 HOGS DEC 62.17 62.42 62.05 60.80 59.76 55.51 55.42 53.02 59 61 82 78 HOGS FEB 67.15 67.43 67.32 66.00 64.74 55.59 56.18 54.01 56 57 86 85 COTTON DEC 67.77 67.94 68.39 68.45 69.31 41.68 43.27 45.84 19 22 27 32 COTTON MAR 67.48 67.58 67.93 67.82 68.66 43.92 44.88 46.36 22 25 38 39 RICE NOV 12.13 12.17 12.04 12.04 12.43 48.94 45.81 47.48 61 70 39 30 RICE JAN 12.43 12.47 12.34 12.32 12.69 49.69 46.65 48.31 61 70 41 31

DTN Early Word Grains 10/17 05:58

DTN Early Word Grains 10/17 05:58 No Turnaround Yet

December corn was 1 cent lower, November soybeans were 4 cents lower, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was fractionally lower.

By Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn was 1 cent lower, November soybeans were 4 cents lower, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was fractionally lower.

CME Globex Recap: Early Tuesday morning finds grains and oilseeds following the same path they did Monday afternoon. Soybeans and corn were lower, led once again by beans, while the wheat complex was mixed. Most other commodities were higher including softs, led by cotton, and the energies. Metals, on the other hand, were lower as gold posted a solid sell-off. The U.S. dollar index was higher again, as were DJIA futures.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 85.24 points (0.4%) higher at 22,956.96, the NASDAQ Composite gained 18.20 points (0.3%) to 6,624.00, and the S&P 500 added 4.47 points (0.2%) to 2,557.64 Monday. DJIA futures were 2 points higher early Tuesday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei up 80.56 points (0.4%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 4.69 points, and China's Shanghai Composite off 6.43 points (0.2%). European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 up 0.38 point, Germany's DAX gaining 3.85 points, and France's CAC 40 down 1.93 points. The euro was 0.0039 lower at 1.1758 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.22 to 93.50. December 30-year T-Bonds were 1/32 higher at 153'24 while December gold fell $12.90 to $1,290.10. Crude oil was $0.22 higher at $52.09 while Brent crude gained $0.26 to $58.08. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/17 14:10

DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/17 14:10 Grains Sag in Listless Trade

Commercial selling pressured soybeans and meal prices lower on light volume Tuesday while corn and winter wheat drifted to slightly lower closes. This week's weather looks good for harvest progress, but traders are not finding much new to trade on.

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